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Steve Sorrell's avatar

The BBC stated that the current advisory will be in place for a week, but without a reference to where that information came from.

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Dr. James Goltz's avatar

I fine quick report. My Japanese colleagues and I have conducted research on Japan's operational earthquake forecast (OEF) system and the M7.1 that occurred yesterday was the first to have triggered a mega-thrust earthquake advisory. In addition to a M7 class event, two other scenario events can prompt the JMA to issue either an advisory or a warning, a slow slip event that accelerates over a few hours to a few days may also cause an advisory to be issued. A M8 class earthquake, which would be a major and possibly tsunami-genic event in one segment of the Nankai Trough would be followed by a (Major Mega-Thrust) warning for all areas of the Nankai region which includes 29 prefectures and 707 municipal governments. Our project focused on local and prefectural governments and their level of planning for receipt of an advisory or a warning. We discovered that 85% of municipal governments in the Nankai region had plans for receipt of these notifications; however, many were minimal in scope with few provisions beyond setting up a disaster headquarters and mobilizing senior staff. We conducted a series of planning/training workshops, including one in Miyazaki City designed to enhance planning for an OEF from the JMA. The Miyazaki workshop was held on August 30, 2023 and was well attended by cities within Miyazaki Prefecture. We published a paper in Seismological Research Letters on our study which can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230304

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