Evaluating Istanbul's seismic hazard

What is the probability of a M7+ earthquake beneath the Sea of Marmara? In 2004, a study gave a chance of 30-70% over the next 30 years. It is now 2023: 19 years later. Is the hazard much higher now?

No. Let me explain.

Earthquake probabilities are based on what we call "recurrence intervals" - the average time between events. But earthquakes are very ir…