Catastrophic M7.5 earthquake strikes northern Venezuela

Severe damage; collapsed buildings; significant fatalities possible

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This is our first post about the June 24 earthquake in Venezuela.

Edit, 2026-08-28, 5:40 PM EST: We asked a Venezuelan colleague how people could help. He recommended: Helping children at risk in Venezuela - Bambi Foundation and Venezuela - Caritas. The first is a foundation is focused on children, which has been a huge issue because apparently there are many orphaned kids. The second is a Catholic charity with a long, positive track record.

A powerful magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck northern Venezuela on June 24th (local time 18:04). Initial data indicate that the earthquake ruptured a large strike-slip fault that parallels Venezuela’s northern coast. With maximum shaking reaching MMI intensity VIII-XI (severe to violent), we can expect this event to have serious consequences.

Figure 1: Location of the M7.5 earthquake, with estimated shaking intensities from the USGS.

Collapsed buildings have already been documented (see footage at the end of this post). We expect that it will take days, weeks, or even months to determine the extent of the damage. However, the USGS PAGER gives a first look at what might be expected, based on estimates of shaking and vulnerability: likely thousands to tens of thousands of deaths, and billions of dollars of losses. The USGS also estimates that shaking may be triggered significant landsliding and liquefaction.

Figure 2: USGS PAGER estimates for fatalities and economic losses in the June 24, 2026 M7.5 earthquake in Venezuela. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zp/pager

Currently, news reports are catching up to evolving scientific information. The USGS initially announced that one magnitude 7.1 earthquake had occurred, and many news agencies are reporting that number. However, that number was updated soon thereafter: first, a M7.2 earthquake, then, 38 seconds later, a M7.5 earthquake. To be clear: a M7.2 earthquake in northern Venezuela is already an emergency. A M7.5 earthquake releases about three times as much energy as a M7.2.

Although we can be reasonably confident that a M7.5 (or thereabouts) earthquake occurred, the details of this rupture should be considered preliminary at this point. A M7.2 earthquake rupture typically takes tens of seconds to complete, with a rupture front traveling from the epicenter outward along the fault, possibly in two directions. Two large earthquakes one after the other might also be considered two pulses of a single large rupture, with a total moment release equivalent to ~M7.6.

This kind of scenario is extremely difficult to untangle, because the P- and S-waves of the second event (or pulse) will have shown up at seismometers within the shaking signal of the first event, making it difficult to identify and characterize it. Furthermore, a M6.9 earthquake occurred in Japan just 26 minutes later. We cannot at this time exclude the possibility that the earthquake in Japan was triggered by seismic waves arriving from Venezuela, although it seems very unlikely: the shaking would have been weak, and a M7.6 earthquake occurred near here in December 2025, so the M6.9 is not very unusual. Whatever the cause of the Japanese earthquake, the seismic waves once again overlapped. At the time of this writing, the EMSC has not yet reported a second, larger earthquake.

This kind of second, larger earthquake hiding within the shaking of a first event is not new. For example, a similar situation happened in August 2021, when a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the South Sandwich Islands was followed about two and a half minutes later by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake; again, it took some time to identify the second, larger event. In that case, the earthquakes were far from any populated areas. The same cannot be said now.

For people in Venezuela, it is likely that they experienced this as a single, very long period of shaking. One person wrote to the EMSC: “DURO MUCHO TIEMPO EL SISMO” (“THE EARTHQUAKE LASTED A LONG TIME”). Another wrote: “Nunca había sentido un terremoto así “ (“I had never felt an earthquake like that”).

In fact, we have a colleague located in Caracas now (Dr. Franck Audemard), who has written to us to describe the event. Dr. Audemard is the expert on the tectonics of Venezuela (among other things). He writes:

So far, I have felt 3 aftershocks in the streets of El Llanito (eastern Caracas), after the main shock.

My main observations about the main shock in a 2nd floor flat: I felt P waves vertically twice, lying in bed (soccer watching). After 2-4 sec silence, the S waves shook us rather strongly for more than 10-12 sec. On the table, the water was seiching. From the top shelf of my book shelves, several of my trophies fell down to floor. It was hard to stand up and walk during S shaking. No noise. Dizziness while walking down to street level (2 levels down).

There is even heavy damage reported in Caracas; in areas of thick soft-sediment effects (San Bernardino, Altamira-Palos Grandes urbanizations)

Dr. Audemard has shared with us footage and photos of the event, which we have included at the end of this post.

Tectonic setting

Venezuela’s northern coast is traced by a long right-lateral strike-slip fault. West of ~67°W, this is known as the Oca-Ancón fault; east of that longitude, the El Pilar fault. At that junction between these two fault names, there is another right-lateral fault that splays off to the southwest: the Boconó fault.

The earthquakes occurred right at that juncture.

At this time, the earthquake focal mechanisms all point to rupture of the main east-west fault. The east-west nodal plane of the earthquake does not align with the Boconó fault. The basemap here is from a 2003 publication by Dr. Audemard.

Figure 3: Tectonic map of Venezuela and neighboring countries. The east-west strike-slip faults that run along northern Venezuela are highlighted in red, and the focla mechanism of the M7.5 earthquake is shown. Map is from Audemard (2003).

This fault marks the boundary between the Caribbean plate to the north and the South American plate to the south. The black arrows are measurements at GPS stations, showing that the Caribbean plate is moving about 20 millimeters to the east each year relative to the South American plate.

On the map below, we have plotted earthquakes and focal mechanisms from the USGS catalog, labelling those above M7. This earthquake is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake on record in this region of Venezuela.

Figure 4: Earthquakes of northern Venezuela, colored by depth. Arrows are GPS vectors showing crustal movement; ellipses are uncertainties. Eathquakes above M7 are labelled. GPS vectors are from Kreemer et al. (2014).

There are bound to be many aftershocks of this event; their distribution will outline the rupture area. This is important, because a M7.5 earthquake typically is associated with a rupture that is ~100-200 kilometers long, with several meters of slip on average. Figuring out whether the rupture went west or east or both, and the total length, will help to mark out the damage areas. We note that the earthquakes initiated about 170 kilometers west of Caracas, so a unilateral eastward rupture could reach that far.

However, the USGS is not yet reporting aftershocks, presumably because they are obscured in the global seismic network by the strong shaking of the first events. We expect to see aftershocks in earthquake catalogs within hours. A local network would be able to identify events more precisely. Venezuela does have a seismic organization that maintains an earthquake catalog (Fundación Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismológicas), but it appears to be operating with a several hour delay. Even with automated algorithms, earthquake picks are typically reviewed by a person before publishing (yes, even at the USGS!). Furthermore, with the organization centered in Caracas, and the likelihood of damage and certainly electricity outages, it is unlikely that we will see more precise data from them in the near future.

What we do have at this point is felt reports to the USGS. The USGS has used these felt reports, in combination with basic information about the event, to estimate shaking intensities. The preliminary model shows shaking centered around the mainshock, with the strongest shaking limited to about 100 kilometers along the fault. This model is based on pretty piece-meal data — seismometer coverage is spotty at best, and even felt reports are pretty slim: still fewer than 200. Note that the PAGER results (estimated fatalities and damage) are developed in parallel with this shaking model, so we can expect that changes to one will influence the other.

If you felt this earthquake, please consider reporting your experience to the USGS. You can also describe the event in your words and upload footage and photos to the EMSC.

Figure 5: Earthquakes (circle and “beachball”); USGS felt reports (squares) and estimated shaking by the USGS (contours).

We last wrote about this part of the world in September 2025, when three earthquakes around M6 struck about 200 kilometers to the southwest. We have removed the paywall from that post to allow our readers to further explore the seismicity of this region.

What to expect

People in the area should be aware that aftershocks are expected, and that buildings that have already been damaged are particularly dangerous, as further shaking could cause further collapse. Aftershocks tend to decay as 1/time — in other words, by day 10, the rate of aftershocks should have decreased to 10% of day 1, and by day 100, to 1%. Nevertheless, large, delayed aftershocks will remain possible for months or even years.

The USGS has released a first aftershock forecast. This forecast will be updated over time as seismicity is recorded. Find the latest forecast here. Note that there is a small chance that this earthquake could trigger an event larger than itself. Right now the webpage states: “There is a 4% chance that this earthquake becomes a foreshock to a larger earthquake (magnitude 7.2 or greater) in the next week, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.” Note that a M7.2 earthquake would not be a larger earthquake; there seems to be some confusion related to the double-event. (Edit, 2026-06-24, 11:05 PM EST: this has been fixed; the probability of the M7.5 becoming a foreshock has been revised to 2% over the next week.)

Figure 6: Aftershock forecast for the M7.5 earthquake. To see the latest forecast, visit the USGS here.

Footage and photos

These images were shared with us by Dr. Audemard, who received them from others, and we are reproducing them here. We do not usually focus on damage, but in this case because of the limited information that is currently available it seemed appropriate to document some of the extent of the damage. Where it was provided, we have noted the location.

Total building collapse in Palos Grandes Urb. (Caracas):

The Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetia:

The Dean Building for the Engineering Faculty at the Universidad Central de Venezuela. Dr. Audemard notes that the yellow/grey/white wall in the background is the building where he works: Geological, Chemistry, and Petroleum Engineering.

We appreciate Dr. Audemard’s engagement in the middle of disaster, and hope that by sharing this information we are able to help connect the people impacted by this disaster with those trying to help.

References:

Audemard M, F.A., 2003. Geomorphic and geologic evidence of ongoing uplift and deformation in the Mérida Andes, Venezuela. Quaternary International, 101, pp.43-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00218-9

Bradley, K., Hubbard, J., 2025. M7.6 earthquake strikes offshore Honshu, Japan. Earthquake Insights, https://doi.org/10.62481/85f72316

Bradley, K., Hubbard, J., 2025. Several large earthquakes strike northwestern Venezuela. Earthquake Insights, https://doi.org/10.62481/8c943b8f

Hubbard, J., 2021, Mixed earthquake signals in the South Sandwich Islands, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.202

Kreemer, C., Blewitt, G. and Klein, E.C., 2014. A geodetic plate motion and Global Strain Rate Model. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 15(10), pp.3849-3889. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GC005407